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| Luke Sharrett/Bloomberg |
The forum at Saint Anselm College in Manchester, the last major unscripted event before the Granite State’s first-in-the-nation primary on Tuesday, could sway the outcome. As many as one-third of the state’s Republicans have told pollsters they’re undecided.
“There’s a lot of uncertainty out there among Republican voters as to what to do and who to back,” said Dante Scala, a political science professor at the University of New Hampshire. “This could move a lot of votes, potentially.”
Rubio, the Florida senator, has been rising in polls after an unexpectedly strong third-place showing in the Feb. 1 Iowa caucuses behind Texas Senator Ted Cruz and Trump, the billionaire real estate mogul who’d been leading in most state and national polls before finishing second in Iowa.
Cruz and Trump have tangled with Rubio in previous debates over immigration and other issues. Tonight, Rubio also stands in the way of a trio of governors who need a big day on Tuesday -- Ohio’s John Kasich, Chris Christie of New Jersey, and Rubio’s one-time mentor, former Florida Governor Jeb Bush.
Establishment Wing
They’re the so-called establishment candidates who are staking their campaigns on a strong finish in New Hampshire and will have trouble continuing in the race if they finish poorly behind Rubio.
Bush and Christie have criticized first-term senator Rubio in advertising and in campaign appearances as inexperienced and unaccomplished, seeking to blunt his momentum from Iowa and prevent establishment Republicans from rallying around him.
While Kasich has taken veiled jabs at Rubio, he has largely avoided mentioning him or others in the race by name. The Ohio governor and former nine-term U.S. congressman is trying to conduct a positive campaign as a way to stand out amid the crowded establishment field.
Trump skipped the final debate before the Iowa caucuses on grounds he wouldn’t be treated fairly by Fox News moderator Megyn Kelly, and after leading the polls for weeks, he lost to Cruz 28 percent to 24 percent. Trump has since said that skipping the debate might have cost him support in Iowa.
Risky Encounter
While Trump has a lead in New Hampshire of about 14 percentage points over Rubio in a RealClearPolitics average of recent polls in the state, tonight’s encounter poses a risk if the former reality television show star doesn’t regain some of the swagger he lost in Iowa, said Kevin Madden, an adviser to Republican Mitt Romney’s 2012 presidential campaign.
“He kind of has to stop what looks like a slide,” Madden said. “He’s having to deal with the loser brand right now, and that’s not familiar territory for Trump.”
Cruz, whose strong appeal to conservative and evangelical Christian voters in Iowa helped him defeat Trump there, is likely to be aiming his comments Saturday more at voters in South Carolina, which holds its Republican primary on Feb. 20, Madden said.
Hoarding Cash
Cruz isn’t skipping New Hampshire altogether, but is saving cash for South Carolina and a spate of mostly Southern primaries on March 1, known as “Super Tuesday.” Polls suggest there’s little room to grow support among New Hampshire’s centrist-leaning voters and given Rubio’s surge in the state, Cruz’s campaign has said.
Saturday’s debate also includes retired neurosurgeon Ben Carson, a favorite among conservative voters a few months ago who finished a distant fourth in Iowa. Carson cut dozens of campaign staff positions on Feb. 4, the Washington Post reported.
While previous debates featured a so-called “undercard” forum for low-polling candidates, host ABC News is not holding one ahead of tonight’s 8 p.m. event. It cited pre-determined criteria to exclude former Hewlett Packard Chief Executive Carly Fiorina and former Virginia Governor Jim Gilmore.
Last-Minute Decisions
To make the stage, candidates had to place in the top six in national and New Hampshire polls or finish in the top three in Iowa. Fiorina appealed unsuccessfully to be included. Two other Republicans, former Pennsylvania Senator Rick Santorum and Kentucky Senator Rand Paul, suspended their campaigns after low finishes in Iowa.
Saturday’s debate will be moderated by ABC News anchors David Muir and Martha Raddatz. New Hampshire WMUR-TV anchor Josh McElveen and blogger Mary Katharine Ham will join in the questioning, ABC said.
New Hampshire residents traditionally decide late, and polls show a majority haven’t settled on a candidate, Scala said, making tonight’s debate crucial.
Only 45 percent of likely Republican primary voters say they have definitely decided who they will support, and 26 percent are leaning toward a candidate, according to a CNN/WMUR New Hampshire Primary Poll released on Friday. The poll showed 30 percent are still trying to decide.
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