(Ranges are calculated using recent highs and lows, information on the placement of option strikes, and technical analysis--Bollinger Bands, Fibonacci levels, trendlines and moving averages.)
USD/CNY--closed.
USD/TWD--uptrend. USD/TWD may gain momentum again after another 4-year high for the U.S. dollar index was recorded overnight due to the fall of the euro. The broad U.S. dollar rally is likely to continue in Asia due to the growing perception that the U.S. Federal Reserve will adopt a hawkish stance on interest rates soon. On the other hand, slowing growth in Asia makes it unlikely that domestic central banks will be able to raise rates just yet. The technical indicators for USD/TWD remain bullish, with the daily Bollinger uptrend channel still in effect, supporting the dollar at 30.330 currently. The upward slope of the channel points USD/TWD toward the year-to-date peak of 30.710. Dow Jones technical analysis suggests immediate support is at 30.330 (base of daily Bollinger uptrend channel), then at 30.170 (20-day Bollinger mid support), before 30.000 (round-figure trading barrier). Immediate resistance is likely at 30.500 (top of daily Bollinger uptrend channel and psychological trading barrier), before 30.710 (2014 peak).
USD/KRW--uptrend. USD/KRW rises to a new 5-month high as the South Korea won tumbles following disappointing trade and inflation data. USD/KRW is likely to spike if stoploss orders above the 1,060 round-figure trading barrier are triggered. Data released early Wednesday showed South Korea posted a trade surplus of $3.36 billion, lower than expectations for $3.65 billion, due to weak export growth. The possibility of another Bank of Korea interest rate cut due to weak inflation has also boosted USD/KRW. Inflation eased in September, falling 0.1% on-month versus expectations for a 0.2% rise. On Tuesday, industrial output data for August disappointed, shrinking 2.8% on-year, well below expectations for a rise of 1.4%. Dow Jones technical analysis suggests immediate support is at 1,050 (round-figure trading barrier), then at 1,048 (base of daily Bollinger uptrend channel), before 1,040 (round-figure trading barrier). Immediate resistance is at 1,060 (top of daily Bollinger uptrend channel and round-figure trading barrier), before 1,070 (round-figure trading barrier).
USD/SGD--uptrend. USD/SGD continues to rise along the daily Bollinger uptrend channel, aiming for the round-figure trading barrier at 1.2800. The greenback has made three consecutive intraday highs versus the Singapore dollar and may do so again Wednesday as the benchmark U.S. dollar index rises to another 4-year high. Though the China market will be closed for a week, the release of the official China manufacturing PMI for September later today--expected to be unchanged at 51.1 from August--could have an impact on risk sentiment in Singapore and the rest of Asia. Dow Jones technical analysis shows immediate support is at 1.2720 (base of daily Bollinger uptrend channel), then at 1.2700 (round-figure trading barrier), then at 1.2658 (20-day Bollinger mid support). Immediate resistance is at 1.2781 (top of daily Bollinger uptrend channel), then at 1.2800 (round-figure trading barrier), before 1.2830 (year-high).
USD/MYR--uptrend. USD/MYR marks a new 5-month high as the U.S. dollar index rose overnight--again due to the euro sliding. The round-figure trading barrier of 3.3000 which approaches may become a magnet for ringgit dealers who could try to push USD/MYR higher so as to trigger stoploss orders. USD/MYR may spike to 3.3200 on a break of the round-figure barrier. The Malaysian ringgit has lost 3.9% this month due to external risk factors. The likelihood of geopolitical turmoil escalating has been driving investors away from risky assets and toward the safe haven U.S. dollar. Dow Jones technical analysis suggests immediate support is at 3.2800 (psychological support), then at 3.2590 (base of daily Bollinger uptrend channel), then at 3.2570 (weekly Ichimoku Cloud support), before 3.2500 (round-figure trading barrier). Immediate resistance is at 3.2920 (top of daily Bollinger uptrend channel), then at 3.3000 (round-figure trading barrier), before 3.3200 (psychological resistance).
USD/THB--uptrend. USD/THB continues to exhibit a bullish technical bias, with an immediate target for the psychological resistance at 32.50. The daily Bollinger uptrend channel now supports the greenback at 32.33. The baht is likely to keep falling versus the U.S. dollar on two key factors--the likelihood of U.S. interest rates rising sooner, and the flagging domestic Thai economy. On Tuesday, a weak report of Thai private consumption and private investment added to the gloom. On Monday, the Thai finance ministry downplayed its outlook for GDP growth, saying that the economy is unlikely to hit 2.0% for the year. Dow Jones technical analysis suggests immediate support is at 32.33 (base of daily Bollinger uptrend channel), before 32.21 (20-day Bollinger mid support). Immediate resistance is at 32.44 (top of daily Bollinger uptrend channel), then at 32.47 (weekly Bollinger uptrend channel), before 32.50 (psychological resistance).
USD/PHP--uptrend. USD/PHP is likely to rise above 45.00 again after another 4-year high was notched by the benchmark U.S. dollar index overnight. The 45.00 round-figure trading barrier was briefly breached on Tuesday but profit-taking on fears of central bank intervention--to stem peso weakness--led to USD/PHP closing lower. The daily USD/PHP chart's uptrend bias has now been augmented by the weekly chart turning bullish as well. USD/PHP has climbed above the weekly Ichimoku Cloud resistance zone, indicating a greater likelihood that the U.S. dollar keeps rising over the medium term. Bullish USD/PHP chart technicals aside, the peso has been under pressure due to the Philippines' trade deficit of $33 million in July which was revealed last week. The market had been expecting a surplus of around $180 million. Dow Jones technical analysis suggests immediate support is at 44.80 (psychological support), then at 44.63 (base of daily Bollinger uptrend channel), before 44.52 (weekly Ichimoku Cloud support). Immediate resistance is likely at 45.00 (round-figure trading barrier), then at 45.20 (psychological resistance), before 45.50 (2014 peak).
USD/IDR--uptrend. USD/IDR is likely to keep climbing as U.S. dollar bulls receive encouragement from the overnight 4-year high of the U.S. dollar index. The USD/IDR chart now has a bullish technical bias on the daily and weekly chart and also on the monthly chart--which was confirmed by Tuesday's closing within the monthly Bollinger uptrend channel. The dollar's rise looks likely to continue as external factors coupled with domestic political rumblings drive investors away from the Indonesian rupiah. The rupiah has been slipping since Indonesian lawmakers revoked direct regional elections--seemingly a retaliatory move by opponents of president-elect Joko Widodo. The political jostling will likely make it difficult for the new administration to carry out electoral promises of economic and structural reforms. Dow Jones technical analysis suggests immediate support for spot USD/IDR is at 12,080 (base of monthly Bollinger uptrend channel, then at 12,040 (base of daily Bollinger uptrend channel), before 12,000 (round-figure trading barrier). Immediate resistance is at 12,200 (psychological resistance), then at 12,270 (year high), before 12,500 (psychological resistance).
USD/INR--uptrend. USD/INR could spike past the 62.00 round-figure trading barrier as the market reacts to yet another 4-year high for the U.S. dollar index. The U.S. dollar bulls may be gearing up for next week's release of the minutes of the U.S. Federal Reserve's September FOMC meeting which could reveal that the Fed is turning more hawkish. The bullish technical signal for USD/INR could strengthen on a Friday close above 61.38--the top of the weekly Ichimoku Cloud resistance zone. The daily and weekly charts both suggest that the rupee may fall against the U.S. dollar, possibly to 63.14--where the monthly USD/INR Bollinger uptrend channel begins--despite Prime Minister Modi's recent success in courting massive foreign investment and improving foreign investor sentiment. Dow Jones technical analysis suggests immediate support is 61.38 (weekly Ichimoku Cloud support and base of daily Bollinger uptrend channel), before 61.00 (round-figure trading barrier). Immediate resistance is likely at 61.81 (top of weekly Bollinger uptrend channel), then at 62.00 (round-figure trading barrier), before 62.50 (psychological resistance).
Write to Ewen Chew at ewen.chew@dowjones.com
(This article is general financial information, not personalized investment advice, as it does not consider the unique circumstances affecting an individual reader's decision to buy or sell a specific security. Dow Jones does not warrant the accuracy, completeness or timeliness of the information in this article, and any errors will not be made the basis for any claim against Dow Jones. The author does not invest in the instruments or markets cited in this article.)
(END) Dow Jones Newswires
September 30, 2014 20:53 ET (00:53 GMT)
0 Response to "USD/Asia Rallies, China Markets Closed - Asia Daily Forex Outlook"
Thanks for give comment.