(Ranges are calculated using recent high and lows and technical analysis - Fibonacci levels, trendlines and moving averages.)
USD/JPY--to trade in lower range. Undermined by negative dollar sentiment (ICE spot dollar index last 93.68 versus 94.56 early Wednesday) after U.S. April retail sales came in flat on-month (versus forecast for 0.2% increase); surprise 0.3% on-month drop in U.S. April import price index (versus forecast +0.3%); smaller-than-expected 0.1% on-month increase in U.S. March business inventories (versus forecast +0.2%). The U.S. yield curve steepened overnight (2-year fell to 0.580% from 0.604%, 10-year rose to 2.294% from 2.247%) as the weak U.S. April retail sales data bolstered expectations that the Federal Reserve would take its time in raising short-term interest rates. USD/JPY also weighed by Japan exporter sales. But USD/JPY losses tempered by demand from Japan importers; ultra-loose Bank of Japan's monetary policy. Data focus: 2350 GMT Japan April money stock; 0600 GMT Japan April preliminary machine tool orders; 1230 GMT U.S. April PPI (forecast +0.1% on-month); 1230 GMT U.S. jobless claim in week ended May 9 (forecast 273,000). Daily chart tilting negative as MACD and stochastics turning bearish; bearish parabolic stop-and-reverse signal hit Wednesday. Support at 119.03 (Wednesday's low); breach would expose downside to 118.50 (April 30 low), then 118.33-118.30 (March 26 low-Feb. 20 low), 118.11 (Feb. 16 low) and 117.17 (Feb. 6 low). Resistance at 120.10 (Wednesday's high); breach would temper negative near-term view, targeting 120.28 (Tuesday's high), then 120.51 (May 5 high), 120.84 (April 13 high), 121.20 (March 20 high) and 121.53 (March 17 high).
EUR/USD--to trade in higher range. Supported by negative dollar sentiment; higher German bund yields (10-year rose 4.7 bps to 0.727% Wednesday); euro demand on rebounding EUR/GBP cross. But euro sentiment dented by weaker-than-expected +0.4% on-quarter, +1.0% on-year growth in eurozone 1Q GDP (versus forecast +0.5% on-quarter, +1.1% on-year); surprise 0.3% on-month drop in eurozone March industrial production (versus forecast for flat reading). EUR/USD gains also tempered by lingering concerns about Greece; European Central Bank's large-scale quantitative easing program. Event focus: 1400 GMT ECB Chief Draghi speaks. Daily chart positive-biased as MACD bullish, stochastics reverted to bullish mode at overbought levels. Resistance at 1.1383-1.1392 band (Wednesday's high-May 7 high); breach would expose upside to 1.1450 (Feb. 19 high), then 1.1532 (Feb. 3 reaction high) and 1.1674 (Jan. 21 high). Support at 1.1202 (Wednesday's low); breach would temper positive near-term view, exposing downside to 1.1131 (Monday's low), then 1.1066 (May 5 low), 1.0959 (April 29 low), 1.0860 (April 28 low) and 1.0819 (April 27 low).
AUD/USD--to consolidate with bullish bias after hitting near-four-month high 0.8127 this morning. Supported by negative dollar sentiment; Aussie demand on buoyant AUD/NZD cross; expectations that the Reserve Bank of Australia may have come to the end of its easing cycle. Daily chart positive-biased as MACD and stochastics bullish; five- and 15-day moving averages advancing. Resistance at 0.8233-0.8243 band (Jan. 21 high-Jan. 19 high); breach would expose upside to 0.8295 (Jan. 15 reaction high), then 0.8323 (200-day moving average). Support at 0.7951 (Wednesday's low); breach would temper positive near-term view, exposing downside to 0.7882-0.7873 band (Tuesday's low-Monday's low), then 0.7859 (Friday's low), 0.7795-0.7790 (May 5 low-April 27 low) and 0.7762 (April 24 low).
NZD/USD--to consolidate with bullish bias after hitting six-day high 0.7557 this morning. Kiwi sentiment boosted by stronger-than-expected 2.7% on-quarter increase in New Zealand 1Q retail sales (versus forecast +1.6%). NZD/USD also supported by negative dollar sentiment; NZD-USD interest differential. But NZD/USD gains tempered by expectations for interest rate cuts from Reserve Bank of New Zealand in coming months; Kiwi sales on buoyant AUD/NZD cross; weak dairy prices. Daily chart tilting positive as bullish outside-day-range pattern completed Wednesday; stochastics rising from oversold levels; negative MACD histogram bars contracting; bullish parabolic stop-and-reverse signal hit this morning. Resistance at 0.7557 (this morning high); breach would target 0.7569-0.7577 band (May 6 high-May 5 high), then 0.7627 (May 1 high), 0.7744 (April 29 high), 0.7763 (200-day moving average) and 0.7808 (Jan. 19 high). Support at 0.7459 (hourly chart), then at 0.7360 (hourly chart) and 0.7314 (Wednesday's low); breach would expose downside to 0.7273 (March 18 reaction low), then 0.7182-0.7174 band (March 11 low-Feb. 3 low).
GBP/USD--to consolidate with bullish bias after hitting five-month high 1.5767 Wednesday. GBP/USD supported by negative dollar sentiment; encouraging U.K. jobs data as the jobless rate in the three months to March came in at 5.5% (matching forecast), while average weekly earnings rose an annual 1.9% including bonuses (versus forecast +1.8% on-year); stronger-than-expected rise in U.K. RICS house price balance to +33 in April from +21 in March (versus forecast +22). But sterling sentiment dented after Bank of England cut its U.K. growth forecasts for the next three years in its quarterly inflation report and implied there would be only gradual rises in interest rates over the next few years. GBP/USD gains also tempered by sterling sales on rebounding EUR/GBP cross. Daily chart positive-biased as MACD and stochastics bullish, although latter at overbought levels; five- and 15-day moving averages advancing. Resistance at 1.5767 (Wednesday's high); breach would target 1.5785 (Dec. 16 reaction high), then 1.5825 (Nov. 27 reaction high) and 1.5944 (Nov. 11 reaction high). Support at 1.5631 (Wednesday's low); breach would temper positive near-term view, exposing downside to 1.5554 (Tuesday's low), then 1.5391 (Monday's low), 1.5242 (Friday's low), 1.5162 (May 7 low) and 1.5149 (May 6 low).
USD/CHF--to trade in lower range. Financial markets in Switzerland are closed Thursday for a public holiday. USD/CHF undermined by negative dollar sentiment. But USD/CHF losses tempered by negative Swiss interest rates; threat of Swiss National Bank CHF-selling intervention. Daily chart tilting negative as MACD bearish, stochastics reverted to bearish mode near oversold levels. Support at 0.9149 (Wednesday's low); breach would expose downside to 0.9065 (May 7 low, near 38.2% Fibonacci correction of advance from Jan. 15 low of 0.7360 to March 12 high of 1.0128), then 0.8762 (Jan. 26 low) and 0.8744 (50.0% Fibonacci correction). Resistance at 0.9298 (Wednesday's high); breach would temper negative near-term view, exposing upside to 0.9360 (Tuesday's high), then 0.9413 (May 5 high), 0.9447 (April 30 high), 0.9511 (200-day moving average) and 0.9574 (April 29 high).
USD/CAD--to consolidate with bearish bias after hitting four-month low 1.1926 Wednesday. Undermined by negative dollar sentiment. But USD/CAD losses tempered by weaker oil prices (Nymex crude settled down 25 cents at $60.50/bbl Wednesday, last down 43 cents as $60.07/bbl on Globex). Data focus: 1230 GMT Canada March new-housing price index, new motor vehicle sales. Daily chart negative-biased as stochastics bearish; five- and 15-day moving averages declining. Support at 1.1926 (Wednesday's low) breach would expose downside to 1.1799 (Jan. 15 low), then 1.1762 (200-day moving average). Resistance at 1.2028 (Wednesday's high); breach would temper negative near-term view, exposing upside to 1.2107 (Tuesday's high), then 1.2145 (Friday's high), 1.2162 (May 7 high), 1.2180 (May 4 high) and 1.2204 (May 1 reaction high).
EUR/JPY--to trade in higher range. Supported by buoyant EUR/USD undertone; demand from Japan importers. But EUR/JPY gains tempered by Japan exporter sales. Daily chart tilting positive as MACD bullish, stochastics reverted to bullish mode at overbought levels. Resistance at 135.50 (Wednesday's high); breach would target 135.99 (May 7 high), then 136.23 (Feb. 17 high), 136.68 (Feb. 12 reaction high) and 137.25 (200-day moving average). Support at 134.24 (Wednesday's low); breach would temper positive near-term view, targeting 133.77 (Tuesday's low), then 133.49 (Monday's low), 133.12 (May 5 low), 131.29 (April 30 low) and 130.28 (April 29 low).
EUR/GBP--to trade in higher range after hitting near-three-week low 0.7116 Wednesday. Daily chart mixed as MACD bearish, five-day moving average below 15-day moving average and declining; but stochastics turning bullish at oversold levels, bullish outside-day-range pattern completed Wednesday. Resistance at 0.7227 (Wednesday's high); breach would target 0.7256 (Monday's high), then 0.7394 (Friday's high), 0.7482 (May 7 high) and 0.7591 (Feb. 3 reaction high). Support at 0.7116-0.7107 band (Wednesday's low-April 23 reaction low); breach would target 0.7090 (March 16 low), then 0.7031 (March 12 low) and 0.7010-0.7000 band (March 11 seven-year low-psychological line).
Write to Jerry Tan at jerry.tan@wsj.com
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May 13, 2015 19:46 ET (23:46 GMT)
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May 13, 2015 19:46 ET (23:46 GMT)
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Thanks for give comment.