(Ranges are calculated using recent highs and lows, information on the placement of option strikes, and technical analysis--Bollinger Bands, Fibonacci levels, trendlines and moving averages.)
USD/CNY--consolidation lower. USD/CNY may slip toward the entrance of the Bollinger downtrend channel at 6.1977 as the U.S. dollar index succumbed again to a sharp euro rally on the back of rallying German bund yields. Poorer-than-expected U.S. retail sales data released Wednesday also had a negative effect on the U.S. dollar. If USD/CNY ends Thursday below 6.1977 it would take on a bearish technical bias and could hence break its two-week impasse on the daily chart. The yuan gained slightly Wednesday despite slightly below-expectations China industrial-output data and retail-sales figures. The good-news-is-bad-news rhetoric however didn't manage to rally Shanghai stocks as some had been expecting; instead, the equity index fell 0.6%. Dow Jones technical analysis suggests immediate support for spot USD/CNY is at 6.2037 (20-day Bollinger mid support), then at 6.2000 (round-figure trading barrier), before 6.1977 (daily Bollinger downtrend channel). Immediate resistance is at 6.2098 (daily Bollinger uptrend channel), then at 6.2159 (daily Ichimoku Cloud resistance zone and top of daily Bollinger uptrend channel).
USD/TWD--downtrend could return. USD/TWD could fade back down from its recent consolidation higher as the U.S. dollar slipped broadly overnight. The market has lately been trading the dollar on cue from EUR/USD - which has rallied due to the surge in German government bond yields. If USD/TWD ends the day below 30.740 it would be back inside the daily Bollinger downtrend channel. The offshore, largely speculative, market is still mildly bullish on USD/TWD but if the price difference between the benchmark 1-month nondeliverable forward contract and the spot contract goes back into a discount, it could signal a sustained drop ahead for spot USD/TWD. Dow Jones technical analysis suggests immediate support is at 30.740 (daily Bollinger downtrend channel), then at 30.540 (base of daily Bollinger downtrend channel), before 30.500 (psychological support and weekly Ichimoku Cloud support). Immediate resistance is likely at 30.930 (20-day Bollinger mid resistance), then at 31.000 (round-figure trading barrier), before 31.130 (daily Bollinger uptrend channel).
USD/KRW--consolidation within uptrend. USD/KRW gaps lower Thursday in reaction to the overnight slump of the U.S. dollar index. The pair is still inside the Bollinger uptrend channel, though barely, and is hence supported at around 1,092. If this chart support is breached by Thursday's close, USD/KRW could drop much lower to 1,084 where the 20-day Bollinger mid support line awaits. The greenback has been sliding due to the sharp gains in EUR/USD triggered by German bund yields accelerating higher. But supporting the USD/KRW pair is the possibility of a Bank of Korea interest-rate cut Friday. Though bank economists think another rate cut - on top of the last one in March - is unlikely, punters are still taking their chances and selling the South Korea won for a quick wager. If interest rates are lowered again, the South Korea won will likely weaken due to diminished returns for yield-seeking investors. Dow Jones technical analysis suggests immediate support is at 1,092 (base of daily Bollinger uptrend channel), then at 1,090 (round-figure trading barrier), before 1,084 (20-day Bollinger mid support). Immediate resistance is 1,100 (round-figure trading barrier), then at 1,101 (top of daily Bollinger uptrend channel), before 1,104 (daily Ichimoku Cloud resistance zone).
USD/SGD--consolidation. USD/SGD came off hard overnight, giving the Singapore dollar a 0.9% gain over the U.S. dollar, due to a strong EUR/USD rally attributed to another rise in German bund yields. But the USD/SGD pair is now stabilizing at the 1.3229 entrance of the daily Bollinger downtrend channel - a technical support level. If this barrier is breached by Thursday's close, USD/SGD would be inside the downtrend channel and thus more likely to keep sliding in the days ahead. Weaker-than-expected U.S. retail-sales data released overnight also played a part in keeping the U.S. dollar depressed. The lukewarm recovery of the U.S. economy has delayed expectations of an interest-rate hike by the U.S. Federal Reserve, thus weighing on the greenback. Dow Jones technical analysis shows immediate support is at 1.3229 (daily Bollinger downtrend channel), then at 1.3200 (round-figure trading barrier), before 1.3150 (psychological support). Immediate resistance is 1.3300 (round-figure trading barrier), then at 1.3324 (20-day Bollinger mid resistance), before 1.3400 (round-figure trading barrier).
USD/MYR--consolidation lower. USD/MYR is likely to slide further away from the daily Ichimoku Cloud resistance zone as the U.S. dollar index slipped again overnight - due to German government bond yields surging again. But USD/MYR may find support at 3.5650, which is the entrance of the daily Bollinger downtrend channel. The weakness of the U.S. dollar may however be temporary as uncertainty continues to linger in the eurozone. With a Greece exit still a prime concern, the stakes may have been raised with data Wednesday showing that the Greek economy is in a technical recession again - after a second quarter of economic contraction. If markets expect a Greek exit from the eurozone, EUR/USD may fall and thus boost the U.S. dollar index. Dow Jones technical analysis suggests immediate support is at 3.5800 (psychological support), then at 3.5650 (daily Bollinger downtrend channel), before 3.5400 (base of daily Bollinger downtrend channel). Immediate resistance is at 3.5900 (20-day Bollinger mid resistance), then at 3.6000 (round-figure trading barrier), before 3.6160 (daily Bollinger uptrend channel).
USD/THB--uptrend. USD/THB's retreat Wednesday has inklings of a reversal signal on the daily chart but the pair is currently supported by the base of the daily Bollinger uptrend channel at 33.50. If this barrier breaks Thursday, the candlestick reversal pattern which formed over the past three days will likely come into force and may spur USD-selling. USD/THB might then sink toward the 33.00 round-figure trading barrier, which is also the 20-day Bollinger mid support line. The U.S. dollar is under pressure after another overnight euro rally - triggered by German bund yields rising sharply. But from a fundamental perspective, the baht may stay weak as the Bank of Thailand holds a dovish stance and the government encourages investment outflows. The military government has said that it prefers a weaker currency for greater export competitiveness. Dow Jones technical analysis suggests immediate support is at 33.50 (psychological support and base of daily Bollinger uptrend channel), then at 33.20 (psychological support), before 33.00 (round-figure trading barrier and 20-day Bollinger mid support). Immediate resistance is at 34.00 (top of daily Bollinger uptrend channel and round-figure trading resistance), before 34.20 (psychological resistance).
USD/PHP--consolidation within uptrend. USD/PHP is likely to retreat slightly again toward the 44.65 base of the Bollinger uptrend channel due to another overnight drop in the U.S. dollar index. But if the pair ends the day above 44.65 the bullish chart bias will remain and could spur buying-on-dips. But if the chart support breaks, USD/PHP may subside a tad lower to the Ichimoku Cloud support zone at 44.52. The upcoming Philippine central bank policy decision due later Thursday isn't expected to create volatility for the peso. The market expects that Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas will hold interest rates steady again, as there is little reason to act on monetary policy. Dow Jones technical analysis suggests immediate support is at 44.65 (base of daily Bollinger uptrend channel), then at 44.52 (daily Ichimoku Cloud support), before 44.45 (20-day Bollinger mid support). Immediate resistance is likely at 44.84 (top of daily Bollinger uptrend channel), before 45.00 (round-figure trading barrier).
USD/IDR--closed.
USD/INR--consolidation within uptrend. Even as a bullish chart bias persists for USD/INR, the pair may struggle to rally back up to the 1.5-year peak notched Tuesday as the U.S. dollar index fell again overnight. The continued rise of the euro on the surge in German bund yields has been depressing the U.S. dollar broadly. India releases inflation data later Thursday at 0630 GMT, which might be closely watched for implications on the Reserve Bank of India's next monetary policy decision due June 3. The recent interest rate cut by the Chinese central bank has raised speculation that India might follow suit and also ease lending rates again. Dow Jones technical analysis suggests immediate support is at 64.00 (round-figure trading barrier), then at 63.92 (base of daily Bollinger uptrend channel), before 63.50 (psychological support). Immediate resistance is likely at 64.35 (top of daily Bollinger uptrend channel), then at 64.50 (psychological resistance), before 64.80 (psychological resistance).
Write to Ewen Chew at ewen.chew@dowjones.com
(MORE TO FOLLOW) Dow Jones Newswires
May 13, 2015 20:56 ET (00:56 GMT)
(This article is general financial information, not personalized investment advice, as it does not consider the unique circumstances affecting an individual reader's decision to buy or sell a specific security. Dow Jones does not warrant the accuracy, completeness or timeliness of the information in this article, and any errors will not be made the basis for any claim against Dow Jones. The author does not invest in the instruments or markets cited in this article.)
(END) Dow Jones Newswires
May 13, 2015 20:56 ET (00:56 GMT)
#FX
#SaleForex
#Forex
#USD_Asia
#Rebounds
#OverNight
#DollarDrop
#AsiaDailyForexOutlook
0 Response to "USD/Asia Rebounds from Overnight US Dollar Drop -- Asia Daily Forex Outlook"
Thanks for give comment.