(Ranges are calculated using recent high and lows and technical analysis - Fibonacci levels, trendlines and moving averages.)
USD/JPY--to consolidate with bearish bias after hitting five-week low 122.11 Monday. Undermined by flows to haven yen amid increased risk aversion (VIX fear gauge surged 34.45% to 18.85, S&P 500 closed 2.09% lower at 2,057.64.4 overnight) as Greece confirmed it would default on a EUR1.55 billion repayment to the International Monetary Fund due Tuesday, and prospect increases for Greece to exit the European Union. USD/JPY also weighed by weaker dollar sentiment (ICE spot dollar index last 94.99 versus 96.20 early Monday) as market participants pushed back expectations for the Federal Reserve to increase U.S. interest rates this year in view of latest developments in the Greek debt crisis; smaller-than-expected 0.9% increase in U.S. pending home sales index to 112.6 in May (versus forecast +1.2%); lower U.S. Treasury yields (10-year fell 14.8 bps to 2.327% Monday); Japan exporter sales. But USD sentiment soothed by stronger-than-expected U.S. June Dallas Fed business activity index of -7.0 (versus forecast -18.0). USD/JPY losses also tempered by demand from Japan importers; ultra-loose Bank of Japan's monetary policy. Data & event focus: 0500 GMT Japan May industrial production index and construction orders; 1300 GMT U.S. April S&P / Case-Shiller 20-city home price index (forecast +5.7% on-year); 1345 GMT U.S. June ISM-Chicago PMI (forecast 50.2 versus May's 46.2); 1400 GMT U.S. June Conference Board consumer confidence index (forecast 97.4); 2200 GMT Fed's Bullard speaks. Daily chart negative-biased as MACD and stochastics bearish. Support at 122.11 (Monday's low); breach would expose downside to 121.61 (55-day moving average), then 121.44 (May 25 low), 120.83 (100-day moving average) and 120.61 (May 22 low). Resistance at 123.19 (Monday's high); breach would expose upside to 123.99 (Friday's high), then 124.38-124.46 band (Wednesday's high-June 17 high), 124.63 (June 10 high), 124.74 (June 9 high) and 125.68 (June 8 high).
EUR/USD--to consolidate with risks skewed lower after hitting near-one-month low 1.0950 Monday. Undermined by ongoing Greece crisis; weaker-than-expected eurozone June economic sentiment indicator of 103.5 (versus forecast 103.9); softer-than-expected Germany June preliminary HCPI of -0.2% on-month, +0.1% on-year (versus forecast +0.1% on-month, +0.4% on-year); European Central Bank's large-scale quantitative easing program. But euro sentiment soothed after German Chancellor Merkel said she was open to new negotiations with Greece after the July 5 Greek referendum, although insisting that she and other European leaders would not budge from their past insistence on pro-market overhauls in Greece in exchange for more bailout money; German Finance Minister Schaeuble saying the effects of Greece's crisis on other countries are limited, emphasizing that the eurozone and its banking system are more robust today than a few years ago. Many market participants deemed contagion from Greece's crisis manageable as Greece accounts for only a tiny percentage of the eurozone's GDP and most of its debt is currently held by public sector institutions such as the ECB and the IMF. EUR/USD losses also tempered by weaker dollar sentiment; trimming down of short-euro hedges as European stocks fell (Stoxx Europe 600 tumbled 2.69% to 386.17 Monday); unwinding of euro-funded carry trades amid increased risk aversion. Data focus: 0600 GMT Germany May retail sales (forecast flat on-month); 0800 GMT Germany June unemployment change (forecast -5,000), unemployment rate (forecast 6.4%); 0900 GMT eurozone May unemployment rate (forecast 11.1%); 0900 GMT eurozone June flash HCPI (forecast +0.2% on-year), core HCPI (forecast +0.8% on-year). Daily chart mixed as MACD bearish; but stochastics turning bullish, bullish outside-day-range pattern completed Monday. Support at 1.1077 (hourly chart), then at 1.0950 (Monday's low); breach would expose downside to 1.0887 (June 1 low), then 1.0819 (May 27 reaction low), 1.0784 (April 24 low) and 1.0658 April 21 reaction low). Resistance at 1.1278 (Monday's high); breach would expose upside to 1.1347 (June 23 high), then 1.1410 (June 22 high), 1.1440-1.1450 band (June 18 high-May 18 high), 1.1466 (May 15 reaction high) and 1.1532 (Feb. 3 reaction high).
AUD/USD--to consolidate with risks skewed lower after hitting two-and-a-half-month low 0.7584 Monday. Undermined by increased risk aversion; bearish-AUD bets ahead of 0840 GMT RBA Governor Glenn Stevens speech in London; continued market weakness in Chinese stocks despite China's central bank's move on Saturday to cut its one-year lending rate by 0.25% to 4.85% and the amount of reserves certain banks are required to hold by 0.5%; soft commodity prices (CRB spot index closed down 0.58% at 223.58 Monday). But AUD/USD losses tempered by weaker dollar sentiment. Other data: 0130 GMT Australia May financial aggregates, private sector credit; 0630 GMT Australia May international reserves. Daily chart negative-biased as MACD and stochastics bearish; five-day moving average below 15-day moving average and declining. Support at 0.7629 (hourly chart), then at 0.7584 (Monday's low); breach would target 0.7550 (April 13 reaction low), then 0.7530 (near-six-year low hit April 2) and 0.7449 (May 18, 2009 low). Resistance at 0.7712 (Monday's high), then at 0.7740 (Friday's high); breach would target 0.7752 (Thursday's high), then 0.7771 (Wednesday's high), 0.7796 (June 22 high), 0.7809 (June 19 high), 0.7848 (June 18 high) and 0.7934 (May 20 high).
NZD/USD--to consolidate with bearish bias after hitting five-year low 0.6785 Monday. Undermined by increased risk aversion; divergent Reserve Bank of New Zealand-Federal Reserve monetary policy stances; soft dairy prices. But NZD/USD losses tempered by weaker dollar sentiment. Data focus: 0100 GMT New Zealand June ANZ business outlook. Daily chart negative-biased as MACD bearish, stochastics stays suppressed at oversold levels; five- and 15-day moving averages declining. Support at 0.6785 (Monday's low); breach would expose downside to 0.6559 (May 25, 2010 reaction low), then 0.6192 (July 13, 2009 low). Resistance at 0.6880 (Monday's high, near 10-day exponential moving average), then at 0.6909 (Friday's high); breach would target 0.6924 (Thursday's high), then 0.6938 (June 19 high), 0.6994 (June 18 high), 0.7010 (June 17 high), 0.7026 (June 12 high), 0.7198 (June 11 high) and 0.7230 (June 10 high).
GBP/USD--to consolidate with risks skewed lower. Undermined by increased risk aversion as Greece crisis festers. But GBP/USD losses tempered by comment from Bank of England's chief economist Haldane that raising interest rates too early could risk another recession in the U.K.; weaker dollar sentiment. Data focus: 0830 GMT U.K. 1Q final estimate GDP (forecast +0.4% on-quarter, +2.5% on-year), 1Q business investment. Daily chart negative-biased as stochastics falling from overbought levels, MACD turning bearish. Support at 1.5664 (Monday's low); breach would target 1.5623 (June 17 low), then 1.5539 (June 16 low), 1.5485 (June 15 low), 1.5465 (June 12 low), 1.5420 (June 11 low) and 1.5366 (June 10 low). Resistance at 1.5787 (Monday's high); breach would target 1.5802 (Wednesday's high), then 1.5831 (June 23 high), 1.5909 (June 22 high), 1.5928 (June 18 high), 1.5944 (Nov. 11 reaction high) and 1.6021 (Nov. 5 high).
USD/CHF--to trade in lower range. Undermined by weaker dollar sentiment; flows to haven Swiss franc as Greece crisis roils financial markets. But USD/CHF losses tempered by intervention from the Swiss National Bank to curb flight-to-safety buying of the Swissie; negative Swiss interest rates. Data focus: 0700 GMT Switzerland June KOF economic barometer (forecast 93.5). Daily chart mixed as MACD bullish, but stochastics turning bearish. Support at 0.9241 (Monday's low); breach would target 0.9207 (June 23 low), then 0.9152-0.9145 band (June 22 low-June 18 low), 0.9108 (May 15 low), 0.9073-0.9065 band (May 14 low-May 7 low, near 38.2% Fibonacci correction of advance from Jan. 15 low of 0.7360 to March 12 high of 1.0128) and 0.8762 (Jan. 26 low). Resistance at 0.9423-0.9429 band (Monday's high-June 8 high); breach would expose upside to 0.9503 (June 5 high), then 0.9514 (May 28 high) and 0.9529 (200-day moving average).
USD/CAD--to trade with bullish bias. Underpinned by increased risk aversion; soft oil prices (Nymex crude settled down $1.30 at $58.33/bbl Monday). But USD/CAD gains tempered by weaker dollar sentiment. Data focus: 1230 GMT Canada April GDP (forecast +0.1% on-month). Daily chart positive-biased as stochastics in bullish mode; MACD turning bullish; five-day moving average above 15-day moving average and advancing. Resistance at 1.2412-1.2422 band (Monday's high-Wednesday's high); breach would target 1.2441 (June 9 high), then 1.2472 (June 8 high) and 1.2562-1.2569 band (June 5 high-April 15 high). Support at 1.2360 (hourly chart), then at 1.2302 (Monday's low); breach would target 1.2273 (Wednesday's low), then 1.2215-1.2210 (June 22 low-June 19 low), 1.2124 (June 18 low) and 1.1997 (May 18 low, near 200-day moving average).
(MORE TO FOLLOW) Dow Jones Newswires
June 29, 2015 19:30 ET (23:30 GMT)
EUR/JPY--to consolidate with risks skewed lower after hitting near-one-month low 133.68 Monday. Undermined by ongoing Greece crisis; Japan exporter sales. But EUR/JPY losses tempered by demand from Japan importers. Daily chart mixed as MACD bearish, five-day moving average below 15-day moving average and declining; but stochastics turning bullish. Support at 134.42 (hourly chart), then at 133.68 (Monday's low); breach would target 133.53 (100-day moving average), then 133.05 (May 26 reaction low), 131.26 (April 30 low) and 130.22 (April 29 low). Resistance at 138.07 (Monday's high); breach would expose upside to 138.67 (Friday's high), then 138.87 (Thursday's high), 139.18 (Wednesday's high), 140.01 (June 23 high) and 140.63-140.67 (June 22 high-June 18 high).
EUR/GBP--to consolidate with bearish bias after hitting seven-and-a-half year low 0.6981 Monday. Undermined by festering Greece crisis. Daily chart mixed as MACD bearish; but stochastics turned bullish at oversold levels, bullish outside-day-range pattern completed Monday. Support at 0.7056 (hourly chart), then at 0.6981 (Monday's low); breach would expose downside to 0.6891 (Oct. 9, 2007 low), then 0.6677 (July 26, 2007 low). Resistance at 0.7168 (Monday's high); breach would target 0.7179 (June 23 high), then 0.7210-0.7213 (June 22 high-June 17 high), 0.7250 (June 16 high), 0.7266 (June 12 high) and 0.7316 (June 11 high).
Write to Jerry Tan at jerry.tan@wsj.com
This is a financial news and information service. It is provided in general terms and does not take account of or address any individual user's position. To the extent that this article includes suggestions as to various possible investment strategies which users might consider, it does so in only general terms without reference to the personal factors which should determine any user's investment decisions. Nothing contained in this service constitutes personalized investment advice. Dow Jones does not warrant the accuracy, completeness or timeliness of the information in this article, and any errors shall not be made the basis for any claim against Dow Jones. The author does not invest in the instruments or markets cited in this article. This article does not constitute or form part of any invitation or inducement to buy or sell any security.
(END) Dow Jones Newswires
June 29, 2015 19:30 ET (23:30 GMT)
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