(Ranges are calculated using recent highs and lows, information on the placement of option strikes, and technical analysis--Bollinger Bands, Fibonacci levels, trendlines and moving averages.)
USD/CNY--consolidation. The daily USD/CNY chart still lacks directional cues as the pair continues to meander, caught in a technical range of 6.2021-6.2096. The dollar needs to close outside of this range in order to gain technical momentum. The yuan has been stable despite gyrations in China stock markets. On Monday, the Shanghai Composite Index ended in bearish territory, having fallen more than 20% from its peak. The central bank's move to drop interest rates again and to free up more lending reserves for select banks over the weekend failed to boost investor confidence sufficiently. Margin calls on leveraged clients continue to drive equities lower, threatening to spark a prolonged correction lower. Dow Jones technical analysis suggests immediate support for spot USD/CNY is at 6.2058 (20-day Bollinger mid support), then at 6.2027 (base of daily Ichimoku Cloud support), before 6.2021 (daily Bollinger downtrend channel). Immediate resistance is at 6.2096 (daily Bollinger uptrend channel), then at 6.2133 (top of daily Bollinger uptrend channel), before 6.2226 (top of daily Ichimoku Cloud resistance zone).
USD/TWD--consolidation. The U.S. dollar index's sharp overnight pullback - due to the euro recovering its losses - could initially weigh on most USD/Asia pairs. But as long as uncertainty surrounds the Greece debt situation, downside for the safe haven U.S. dollar may be fleeting. USD/TWD may hence consolidate just above the daily Ichimoku Cloud support zone by day's end. If the pair closes above 31.230 it would be inside the Bollinger uptrend channel, making it more likely to rally in the near term. The offshore market suggests that speculators are bullish on the U.S. dollar - the benchmark 1-month nondeliverable forward contract trades at par with the USD/TWD spot contract, whereas it typically trades at a discount of 0.070. Dow Jones technical analysis suggests immediate support is at 31.100 (20-day Bollinger mid line and Ichimoku Cloud support), then at 31.000 (round-figure trading barrier and daily Bollinger downtrend channel), before 30.880 (base of daily Bollinger downtrend channel). Immediate resistance is likely at 31.230 (daily Bollinger uptrend channel), then at 31.350 (top of daily Bollinger uptrend channel), before 31.500 (psychological resistance).
USD/KRW--uptrend. USD/KRW displays a bullish technical bias despite gapping lower Tuesday in reaction to the overnight recovery of the euro. The daily Bollinger uptrend channel currently supports USD/KRW at 1,119 - acting as an intraday floor for the pair. If this barrier is intact by Tuesday's close, there is an increased likelihood that the pair will rally again in the days ahead. South Korea's May industrial output data released earlier saw a 2.8% on-year fall, slightly better than the 3.1% drop forecast by economists. However, the business sentiment index for July slipped to 67 from 76 in June. The data augments the government's forecast for slower economic growth ahead - partially due to the MERS outbreak, which has prompted the authorities to unleash $13 billion in economic stimulus measures. Dow Jones technical analysis suggests immediate support is at 1,120 (round-figure trading barrier), then at 1,119 (base of daily Bollinger uptrend channel), before 1,113 (20-day Bollinger mid support). Immediate resistance is at 1,125 (top of daily Bollinger uptrend channel), then at 1,128 (top of weekly Bollinger uptrend channel), before 1,130 (round-figure trading barrier).
USD/SGD--consolidation. USD/SGD turned around overnight and failed to close inside the daily Bollinger uptrend channel, suggesting that momentum remains weak. The pair is now expected to consolidate within a range of 1.3377-1.3499 demarcated by the respective entrances of the Bollinger downtrend and uptrend channels. The catalyst for the greenback's sharp retreat was the euro's rapid recovery - even as Greece heads toward missing its debt repayment to the IMF Tuesday. The market covered euro-shorts in anticipation that the European Commission will aim to keep Greece in the eurozone, even if its citizens vote against a bailout. The U.S. dollar may bought on dips ahead of the U.S. non-farm jobs report due Friday, which may further convince the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates this year - a positive factor for the greenback. Dow Jones technical analysis shows immediate support is at 1.3438 (20-day Bollinger mid support), then at 1.3400 (round-figure trading barrier), before 1.3377 (daily Bollinger downtrend channel). Immediate resistance is at 1.3500 (round-figure trading barrier and daily Bollinger uptrend channel), then at 1.3541 (top of daily Ichimoku Cloud resistance), before 1.3559 (top of daily Bollinger uptrend channel).
USD/MYR--uptrend. USD/MYR has snapped back from its 10-year high notched on Monday, as the euro recovered overnight. But the USD/MYR daily chart still displays a bullish technical stance - contingent on a Tuesday closing above 3.7670 - which suggests that the ringgit may keep sliding versus the U.S. dollar in the days ahead. The Malaysia central bank has been suspected of intervening in the spot market, selling U.S. dollars since last week, to limit the ringgit's losses. But if USD/MYR breaks the 3.8000 psychological level - at which it was pegged post-Asian financial crisis - it might cause a loss of investor confidence that might spark a deeper selloff. Dow Jones technical analysis suggests immediate support is at 3.7670 (base of daily Bollinger uptrend channel), then at 3.7500 (psychological support), before 3.7430 (20-day Bollinger mid support). Immediate resistance is at 3.7800 (psychological resistance), then at 3.7900 (top of daily Bollinger uptrend channel), before 3.8000 (round-figure trading barrier).
USD/THB--consolidation. USD/THB failed to sustain Monday's rally into the daily Bollinger uptrend channel, and subsided after the euro clawed back all of its losses - on hopes that the European Commission will aim to keep Greece in the eurozone, even after it misses debt payments due Tuesday. The USD/THB pair is hence back inside a consolidation range of 33.63-33.78 demarcated by the respective entrances of the Bollinger downtrend and uptrend channels. Thailand releases its industrial production index for May at 0700 GMT. A weak reading would augment trade data published last week, which showed exports slumped for a fifth straight month, dropping 5.0% on-year, and may weaken the baht slightly. Dow Jones technical analysis suggests immediate support is at 33.70 (20-day Bollinger mid support), then at 33.63 (daily Bollinger downtrend channel), before 33.56 (base of daily Bollinger downtrend channel). Immediate resistance is at 33.78 (daily Bollinger uptrend channel), then at 33.85 (top of daily Bollinger uptrend channel), before 34.00 (round-figure trading barrier).
USD/PHP--retreat and consolidation. USD/PHP may slide back down and out of the Bollinger uptrend channel as the U.S. dollar index snapped back on the euro's sharp overnight recovery. If USD/PHP ends Tuesday below 45.18 it would lose its bullish chart bias and likely consolidate lower toward the 20-day Bollinger mid support line at 45.00 - also a round-figure trading barrier. But downside for the USD/PHP may be limited as the market starts to pre-position for Friday's U.S. jobs report for June. An upbeat reading may support the Federal Reserve's inclination toward raising interest rates in September, which would undoubtedly boost the U.S. dollar against most currencies. Dow Jones technical analysis suggests immediate support is at 45.18 (base of daily Bollinger uptrend channel), then at 45.00 (round-figure trading barrier and 20-day Bollinger mid support), before 44.80 (psychological support). Immediate resistance is likely at 45.20 (psychological resistance), before 45.36 (top of daily Bollinger uptrend channel).
USD/IDR--consolidation lower. USD/IDR retreated late Monday, and may subside further today as the U.S. dollar index relinquished gains on the euro's sharp overnight recovery. USD/IDR is now back inside a consolidation range of 13,265-13,350 after having failed to sustain Monday's rally into the Bollinger uptrend channel. The U.S. dollar is broadly lower as the euro reclaimed its losses on indications that the European Commission is aiming to keep Greece in the eurozone, even if Greece misses debt repayments to the IMF due today. USD/IDR may be supported on dips as punters position for an upbeat U.S. jobs report due Friday - which may make a U.S. interest rate increase this year more likely and thus dampen appeal for high-yielding emerging market currencies such as the rupiah. Dow Jones technical analysis suggests immediate support for spot USD/IDR is at 13,300 (20-day Bollinger mid support), then at 13,265 (daily Bollinger downtrend channel), before 13,225 (base of daily Bollinger downtrend channel). Immediate resistance is at 13,350 (daily Bollinger uptrend channel), then at 13,365 (April bullish trendline), before 13,390 (top of daily Bollinger uptrend channel).
(MORE TO FOLLOW) Dow Jones Newswires
June 29, 2015 21:06 ET (01:06 GMT)
USD/INR--retreat. USD/INR may reinstate its mild bearish bias - which was nullified Monday - as the U.S. dollar index slumped overnight on a sharp pullback in EUR/USD. If USD/INR closes Tuesday below 63.55 it would be back inside the Bollinger downtrend channel, but a wide support zone spanning 63.15-63.62 - the daily Ichimoku Cloud support zone - may withhold further rupee strength versus the U.S. dollar for now. A break of 63.15 is needed to clear the way for further USD/INR downside. Standing in the way of U.S. dollar bears is the upcoming U.S. non-farm payrolls report due Friday. A strong reading would increase the odds of a U.S. interest rate increase in September, and thus empower U.S. dollar bulls. Dow Jones technical analysis suggests immediate support is at 63.62 (daily Ichimoku Cloud support), then at 63.55 (daily Bollinger downtrend channel), before 63.32 (base of daily Bollinger downtrend channel). Immediate resistance is likely at 63.78 (20-day Bollinger mid resistance), then at 64.00 (round-figure trading barrier), before 64.02 (daily Bollinger uptrend channel).
Write to Ewen Chew at ewen.chew@dowjones.com
(This article is general financial information, not personalized investment advice, as it does not consider the unique circumstances affecting an individual reader's decision to buy or sell a specific security. Dow Jones does not warrant the accuracy, completeness or timeliness of the information in this article, and any errors will not be made the basis for any claim against Dow Jones. The author does not invest in the instruments or markets cited in this article.)
(END) Dow Jones Newswires
June 29, 2015 21:06 ET (01:06 GMT)
#FX
#Forex
#SaleForex
#USD_Asia
#Retreats
#EuroRebounds
#AsiaDailyForexOutlook
0 Response to "USD/Asia Retreats as Euro Rebounds -- Asia Daily Forex Outlook"
Thanks for give comment.